THE BRIEF, DELIVERED · 7AM YOUR TIME
A quiet morning.
No price history has been recorded yet, so there is no overnight move to report. Nothing on the board clears the bar to lead an edition with.
SAMPLE DATA · 2:44 PM ET · $0 24H VOLUME
HOW WE'RE DOING
Across 44 resolved markets since 2026-08-03: when the market said 46%, it happened 48% of the time. We publish the calibration, not a win rate.
✓ THE MARKET CALLED IT
Fed cuts rates at the July meeting? — priced at 5% — resolved not Yes.
✕ AND THE ONE WE MISSED
US CPI prints below 3.0% year-on-year? — priced at 16% — resolved Yes.
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