The Scoreboard — the market’s record
What follows grades the markets, not Anteo. It is calibration rather than a win rate: a win rate answers “how often was it right”, which any forecaster can flatter by only calling the easy ones. Calibration answers a harder question — when the market said 70%, did it happen about 70% of the time? Every figure arrives with the number of graded calls behind it, and every miss appears beside every call.
One number can only say we were about right on average, and a forecaster who is confidently wrong at the extremes and cautious in the middle averages to about right. This is where that would show. Deciles we have never priced are absent rather than plotted at zero.
| PRICE BAND | SAID | HAPPENED | CALLS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 7% | 0% | 5 |
| 10–20% | 17% | 20% | 5 |
| 20–30% | 26% | 20% | 5 |
| 30–40% | 35% | 40% | 5 |
| 40–50% | 44% | 50% | 4 |
| 50–60% | 53% | 50% | 4 |
| 60–70% | 65% | 67% | 6 |
| 70–80% | 74% | 100% | 3 |
| 80–90% | 85% | 80% | 5 |
| 90–100% | 92% | 100% | 2 |
44 resolved markets since 2026-08-03. A point above the line means it happened more often than the price implied; below, less often.